Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 1.969839 2.080712 2.196968 2.328384 2.473333 2.628927 2.809382
2025-06-29 1.779722 1.929899 2.094525 2.289857 2.517276 2.776207 3.097032
2025-07-06 1.645731 1.815359 2.006852 2.241698 2.525760 2.863460 3.303637
2025-07-13 1.583452 1.772578 1.991623 2.268305 2.614895 3.044123 3.632179
2025-07-20 1.538263 1.743919 1.987464 2.303245 2.711595 3.237008 3.992459
2025-07-27 1.500744 1.720402 1.985704 2.337917 2.806953 3.432728 4.376216
2025-08-03 1.446624 1.672480 1.949431 2.323953 2.834488 3.536051 4.636894
2025-08-10 1.398243 1.628670 1.915045 2.308782 2.857082 3.631568 4.894254
2025-08-17 1.352111 1.585169 1.878225 2.287076 2.867392 3.707930 5.128305
2025-08-24 1.309580 1.544197 1.842321 2.263780 2.872550 3.775182 5.353689
2025-08-31 1.280637 1.519392 1.826202 2.266189 2.914032 3.900018 5.693362
2025-09-07 1.259103 1.503178 1.820427 2.282126 2.975668 4.060904 6.121437
2025-09-14 1.220479 1.463425 1.781749 2.249866 2.963208 4.102248 6.335705
2025-09-21 1.183518 1.424679 1.742961 2.215476 2.945068 4.132226 6.532514
2025-09-28 1.145079 1.382705 1.698135 2.169990 2.906364 4.123178 6.647202
2025-10-05 1.132769 1.375555 1.701223 2.195207 2.981429 4.318755 7.232928
2025-10-12 1.123772 1.372435 1.709563 2.228296 3.071045 4.549438 7.951566
2025-10-19 1.115150 1.369403 1.717682 2.261113 3.162150 4.792971 8.767813
2025-10-26 1.093060 1.346913 1.696911 2.247898 3.173509 4.883447 9.216568
2025-11-02 1.071778 1.324933 1.676091 2.233538 3.181692 4.968057 9.672217
2025-11-09 1.049749 1.301303 1.652081 2.212986 3.177479 5.026705 10.070343
2025-11-16 1.028313 1.277972 1.627789 2.190921 3.169104 5.075689 10.454590
2025-11-23 1.014655 1.265327 1.618865 2.193204 3.204822 5.222236 11.196179